Weekend Preview

Here are a smattering of matches to look for over the weekend:

Saturday

Blackburn v. Newcastle

Blackburn went winless for the month of November and will like their chances against a Newcastle team that has also performed poorly as of late. Rovers will be without captain Ryan Nelson after he was sent-off in a mid-week loss to Aston Villa. According to ESPN Soccernet, right back Andre Ooijer will move into the center of defense, with Brett Emerton sliding to full-back and Morten Gamst Pederson being recalled to the starting eleven. Newcastle's Sam Alardyce will hope to turn his side's fortunes around against their struggling hosts with his position under increasing scrutiny.

Aston Villa v. Arsenal, Saturday

Arsenal, coming off a 3 - 1 defeat at the hands of Sevilla in the Champions League, are up against tough opposition at Villa Park. The home side have won four games in a row, including the aforementioned 4 - 0 drubbing of Blackburn. Now that the weather has turned, miserable conditions on the road may well go against the Gunners. Heavy rain today will make for a soggy pitch tomorrow, putting a damper on Arsenal's sublime passing game. This could be the match of the weekend in the Premier League. Gabriel Agbonlahor's fitness is in doubt for the home side, while Gael Clichy and Alexander Hleb are questionable for Arsenal. Villa midfielder Nigel Reo-Coker is suspended.

Werder Bremen v. Hamburg SV

It's a clash of the second and third placed teams in the Bundesliga. Bremen come into this match on the back of a 3 - 2 win over Real Madrid in the Champions League. The hosts Bremen are undefeated in nine league matches and have scored a league leading 22 goals at home. Hamburg were also on the winning side in the UEFA Cup, downing French side Rennes 3 - 0 at the HSH Nordbank Arena. The visitors have only allowed a miserly 5 goals in seven away matches so far, so this will be a stern test for Bremen.

Espanyol v. Barcelona

The fourth placed hosts will seek to thwart their local rivals again after they drew with Barcelona 2 - 2 on the second last day of the 06/07 season, helping to ruin Barca's attempt to win three consecutive championships. Barcelona sit in third place, but only managed a draw during the week against Lyon. Ernesto Valverde, the Espanyol manager, said controlling possession is the key to beating Barcelona:

"If we want to beat them, we must make Barca suffer and the best way to do that is by taking away their essence." (ESPN Soccernet)

Barca are easily frustrated and this match could get scrappy if Espanyol are on their game.

Sunday

Fiorentina v. Inter Milan

Milan play Juventus on Saturday, but I feel the game of the week in Serie A has to be Fiorentina facing the league leaders at home. Inter continue to cruise past their opposition, logging a 3 - 0 victory in mid-week away to Turkish side Fenerbahce. The hosts, who harbour Champions League aspirations, have slipped in recent weeks, going winless since their 6 -1 flogging of Elfsborg in the UEFA Cup on Oct. 8. Led by leading scorer Adrian Mutu (6 goals), the Florence side will look to halt Inter's 13 game unbeaten streak in all competitions.

How to bandage England's youth crisis

For the past couple of weeks, usually when there hasn't been a disastrous result or sacking to sift through, a lot of wind and words have been exhausted about the state of the English game and how foreign players are ruining it.

A couple of articles today raised some good points. Martin Samuel of the Times points out that of the 12 players used in the most recent U-21 match, only five played a part in the next Premier League games and only one, Theo Walcott, played for a team participating in European competition.

Richard Williams in the Guardian wrote that while 10 of 22 players in the West Ham - Tottenham game on Sunday were English (an unusually high number), the trend is for foreign players to adapt to the kick-and-chase style of play.

I think that both articles point out flaws in the English league. Not enough young English players are able to play at the highest level, and those that are continue to play a style rejected by many of the most successful nations in the world of football.

I don't suppose to have the answer to this problem, but I believe a cap on foreign players is wrong. Attracting the top talent from around the world is what makes the Premier League great. This needs to be continued.

But something that Sven-Goran Eriksson said a few weeks ago got me thinking. He proposed enlarging the available options on the substitutes bench from five to seven. Several of the leagues on the continent use this system and UEFA club competitions use this rule.

Why not increase the bench, but make teams select English players under the age of 21 for the spots? Of course these players won't play a big part in the manager's scheme, but no manager will pick less than the best to be a part of the match day squad. It would encourage teams to invest in domestic youth, so whether the sixth and seventh players get in or not, England would benefit.

Who knows? You could see the youth subs being used during a lopsided game, getting valuable Premier League playing time. At the very least, it would force the league to take a different look at English talent, at no cost to the league as it stands now.

Five things from the weekend

Here are a few things I picked up watching games over the weekend:

1) Aston Villa's Gabriel Agbonlahor is something else. He was able to get behind the Middlesbrough defense at will and scored a pretty nice goal. He missed a couple of gilt-edged chances, but he's still young.

I've heard several pundits mention his name as a possible right-sided midfield choice for England, but with the skill he showed Saturday and the fragility of the national team's strikers, I think he'll be capped up front.

2) Sam Allardyce is going to have to move quickly to win over the Newcastle fans. At one point during the second half of a 3-0 loss at home to Liverpool, the touchline cam showed Big Sam furiously chomping on a fresh stick of gum while two of the Toon faithful gave him an earful from the stands.

They had good reason to be upset: the Reds controlled most of the game and really should have won by a bigger margin. Newcastle are short on ideas in the midfield, leaving two excellent strikers in Mark Viduka and Obafemi Martins to put in all the work themselves. I also think Allardyce needs to settle on a back four, since tinkering and swapping isn't shoring up a leaky defense.

3) The shine on Blackburn is beginning to wear off. After a good run winning four Premier League matches in a row, they've drawn two and lost one. Mind you the loss was away to Manchester United and one draw was against Liverpool, but on Sunday against Fulham they were unspectacular to say the least. Fulham could have easily taken the points, but they are quite adept at coughing up leads.

The Rovers did suffer the loss of Benni McCarthy to injury early on and Jason Roberts put in a good performance for the home side, but considering some of the other second tier results (Portsmouth and Aston Villa winning away and Everton demolishing Sunderland at home) they should expect better at Ewood Park.

4) David James should have been the keeper at Wembley on Wednesday. Portsmouth played a poor game against lowly Birmingham at St. Andrews and still managed to win 2-0. James, however, played like the veteran keeper he is: he made no mistakes and made key plays when they were needed. He may not steal the show for England, but nor would he let a 35-yard Nico Krancjar shot slip by him.

Speaking of England's bane, Krancjar showed his class once again in this game, scoring a spectacular free kick to seal the game for Pompey. Another player of note in this game was Sully Muntari, who terrorized the Birmingham defense most of the match.

5) Referees tolerate an awful lot in England. When Mike Riley waved off penalty pleas just before half during the West Ham - Tottenham match on Sunday, he was berated incessantly by the victim, Spurs captain Robbie Keane and a horde of his teammates. This continued up until the break and after the halftime whistle, Keane marched up to Riley to continue his rant.

As captain, it is Keane's prerogative to speak with the officials to seek clarification or speak his mind. I think the officials tolerate the rants far too much and should be looking to flash a card or two more often when things get out of hand. Perhaps there was a case for a penalty, but it was clear Riley had made up his mind. Move on, play the game.

MONDAY:

As a Liverpool supporter, I really hope the two sides in the Benitez/Hicks/Gillett row stop the bickering and sit down to iron out their differences like men rather than whining like children. It does nothing positive for the club and will only have a detrimental effect on the field. Grow up guys.

Several sad facts about England and the Isles

After a quick look through England's recent qualifying past (since the 1984 Euro campaign) in both the European Championship and World Cup, the following facts popped out:

• Euro 2008 was the only instance where England lost 3 qualifiers. It's the only time they've played 12 games, but still a telling fact.
• 16 goals scored at home was the highest tally since the 1994 WC qualifiers when England also scored 16...and didn't qualify.
• In the WC 2002 campaign, England qualified on the last day after a draw with Greece. They conceded 6 goals during qualification. For Euro 2008 and WC 1994, they conceded 7 and 9 respectively.

These few tidbits add up to some of the damning evidence against Steve McClaren, who unsurprisingly lost his job with the FA this morning.

The final qualifying game yesterday was dreadful, with many of McClaren's personnel changes failing to pay off. Carson was an embarrassment, Wright-Phillips was ineffective and the five-man midfield simply looked clogged.

I sincerely hope Brian Barwick, chief executive of the FA and the man responsible for appointing McClaren, is being honest when he says he plans to rebuild the England team. It is a process that is long overdue.

The other sad result from yesterday was Northern Ireland's loss to Spain in Las Palmas. This means that the British Isles will be absent from a major tournament for the first time since the 1984 Euro in France.

McClaren's big decisions

England manager Steve McClaren made three bold moves ahead of today's decisive clash against Croatia, dropping Paul Robinson, David Beckham and choosing Gareth Barry over the now-healthy Owen Hargreaves.

In place of Robinson and Beckham, Scott Carson and Shaun Wright-Phillips have been included in the line-up.

I have read some suggestions that a 4-5-1 formation will be employed this afternoon, resulting in the following line-up possibility:

Carson

Richards-----Campbell-----Lescott-----Bridge

Wright-Phillips-----Gerrard-----Barry-----Cole

Lampard

Crouch

Not quite the formation one would expect from a side playing at home for maximum points, but McClaren obviously feels this will secure the point necessary to progress.

Wright-Phillips was mentioned on the Football Weekly podcast as an effective tonic down the right, pointing out how effectively Macedonia exploited Croatia's left back Josip Simunic. Since Beckham seems unlikely to exploit anyone from open play, this may prove to be an astute bit of managing.

Speaking of astute management, it is both comforting and alarming that McClaren has taken the eleventh hour opportunity to partake in his craft. By choosing a side to do the job, he has effectively done what the best managers do: pick the best team for the match, not the best team on form.

Granted injuries to Michael Owen and Wayne Rooney have enforced his choices up front, but McClaren could have easily stuck with the side which defeated Austria on Saturday.

We can only hope that should England go on to Euro 2008, the manager will take these new found tendencies along with him.

Qualification Scenarios

Including co-hosts Austria and Switzerland, 12 teams have qualified for next summer's European Championship. Poland, Italy, France, Greece, the Czech Republic, Germany, Croatia, Spain, Romania and the Netherlands have all booked their tickets for the 2008 tournament.

That leaves four tightly contested spots up for grabs:

Group A:

Second-place Portugal can wrap up a spot with a win or draw in their final match vs. Finland. The Finns, who have never qualified for a major tournament, will go through if they beat Portugal and Serbia drop points in either of their remaining matches vs. Poland and Kazakhstan.

Portugal (home v. Finland, Nov. 21) - Win = Qualification
Finland (away v. Portugal, Nov. 21) - Win + Serbia Loss or Draw in either game = Qualification
Serbia (home v. Poland, Nov. 21; home v. Kazakhstan, Nov. 24) - 2 Wins + Portugal Loss = Qualification

Group C

Turkey need a win at home against Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to qualify or a draw combined with Norway dropping points. Norway will go through with a win away to Malta combined with a Turkey draw or loss.

Turkey (home v. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Nov. 21) - Win or Draw + Norway Loss or Draw or Loss + Norway Loss = Qualification
Norway (away v. Malta, Nov. 21) - Win + Turkey Loss or Draw = Qualification

Group E

England require only a win or draw to ensure qualification. Russia, after their loss to Israel on the weekend, need to win against Andorra and hope Croatia beat England to go through.

England (home v. Croatia, Nov. 21) - Win or Draw = Qualification
Russia (away v. Andorra, Nov. 21) - Win + England Loss = Qualification

Group F

Sweden simply need to draw with Latvia at home to see themselves through, whereas Northern Ireland will hope the for a Sweden loss to go along with a victory against first-placed Spain in Las Palmas to make it to Austria-Switzerland.

Sweden (home v. Latvia, Nov. 21) - Win or Draw = Qualification
Northern Ireland (away v. Spain, Nov. 21) - Win + Sweden Loss = Qualification

These scenarios should make for some fantastic contests to watch tomorrow.

It's all up to England now

I just watched Israel steal a win against Russia. Russia are clearly not a good team, as they squandered multiple chances to put the game away. However, they did beat England...

Israel played well when it mattered and had some good fortune. England owe them a big favour.

Which brings us to the fact that it's all up to England. No Owen against Croatia after an injury versus Austria. Barry didn't start, left out in favour of Lampard or Cole, depending on which way you look at it. Beckham is sure to start. England's Euro 2008 hopes ride on the fortunes of the Heroes of Germany 2006...

I want nothing more than to see England sweep aside Croatia on Wednesday, but see my last article for why victory will be bittersweet.

Who's to blame

With all of the England stars trotted out in front of the microphones and cameras to bleat on about who is to blame for the team's precarious Euro 2008 situation, where should we point the finger?

The players say don't look to Steve McClaren. Stand-in captain Steven Gerrard and a host of others, including the likes of Sir Bobby Charlton and Gary Neville, are pleading for the boss to be kept on, no matter the result of a needlessly rocky qualifying campaign.

Martin Samuel, uber-columnist for the Times, has thrown his lot with Martin O'Neill to succeed McClaren for the job.

But with a seat alongside the spectators looming for the England squad, the best thing that could happen is for McClaren to be removed after his team fail to qualify. I would love nothing more for England to be competing in Austria/Switzerland next year, but for the good of the game, a proper housecleaning is in order.

The FA is in a state of flux. While the FA await the appointment of an independent chairman, the current board need to wipe the slate clean. This starts with removing the senior manager and will end once the heir is allowed the freedom to create a new national footballing regime.

While the next manager may not be Martin O'Neill, it certainly needs to be someone who is willing to look beyond the current squad to find and nurture young players. The top English sides are no longer bringing along domestic talent as they once were, so the England manager needs to find the greenest pastures for youth to grow.

That being said, the youth system needs to be addressed. England are sorely lacking in players outside the midfield and the only way to fix this is to work with the talent coming up through the system. This needs to start at the base level, where 11 and 12-year-olds can be given every opportunity to grow in the England set-up.

While I think he's overreacting, minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe may be on to something with his suspicions about the influx of international talent deserves a look. Top foreign talent is a must for the English game, but perhaps there is a way to balance things so English talent is given every opportunity to succeed at home.

If England are preoccupied with Euro 2008, this will not happen. If McClaren is still the boss come 2008, qualify or not, this will not happen. If England were good enough and McClaren were good enough, they would have qualified already.

This may be Ferguson's best side ever

After Manchester United defeated Blackburn 2 - 0 at Old Trafford on the weekend, manager Alex Ferguson suggested in an interview with the BBC that this year's squad was the strongest he's had in his years at the club.

That's a pretty bold statement, even for Ferguson. But I think it's certainly worth a look because there are shreds of truth in the ageless Scotsman's words.

I think for the purposes of illustration, we could pick three Man United championship sides and compare their relative merits. Jonathan Stevenson of the BBC did a similar comparison, but I think that I come at this debate from a slightly different standpoint.

The Teams:

1994: Schmeichel, Parker, Irwin, Bruce, Pallister, G Neville, Robson, Ince, Keane, Scholes, Kanchelskis, Giggs, Sharpe, Cantona, Hughes, McClair, Dublin.

1999: Schmeichel, G Neville, P Neville, May, Irwin, Brown, Johnsen, Stam, Keane, Scholes, Butt, Blomqvist, Beckham, Giggs, Solskjaer, Cole, Yorke, Sheringham.

2007: Van der Sar, Kuszczak, G Neville, Evra, Ferdinand, Vidic, Brown, O’Shea, Silvestre, Pique, Hargreaves, Carrick, Scholes, Ronaldo, Giggs, Nani, Anderson, Fletcher, Rooney, Tevez, Saha.

Aside from the fact that Gary Neville, Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs were members of all three teams, there is a few other similarities which are indicative of Ferguson's style.

In each of the three seasons in question, a foreign player led (or is leading) Man United in league scoring: Cantona (18), Yorke (18) and Ronaldo (currently with 6).

In addition, United have had the most success when playing with continental keepers as opposed to British-born number ones.

However, Ferguson has always understood the need to buttress top foreign with great players familiar with the English game. Players like Keane, Hughes, Beckham, Cole and now Carrick are just as important as some of the imports.

Great players are necessary to win the Premier League and the FA Cup. What I think places this edition of Man United apart from its predecessors is that the great players in the squad now would be great on any team in the world, not just in England.

Ronaldo, Tevez, Rooney and Nani are all world-class players. These guys would be stars on any team in Europe. Playing together, they are a formidable unit who will be challenging the best on the continent for the Champions League title this year and for the foreseeable future.

Also, the contributions of players like Giggs, Carrick, Ferdinand and Vidic only add another dimension to the Red Devil's prowess.

Don't get me wrong, there have been great players at United before. Cantona, for example, was perhaps the most talented player in Europe at his peak. Unfortunately, he was shunned by the French national team and therefore without an international stage upon which to ply his trade.

In addition, Peter Schmeichel was one of the best keepers in the history of the sport. And no one would question the pedigree of Irwin, Bruce, Robson or Cole, but would they have been the world-wide stars that currently suit up at Old Trafford today?

The current crop of players stands to exceed the lofty standards of the past for Manchester United. Even with an injury-prone star like Rooney, United have the depth of talent to continue at a high level of play. But any of the top stars in this squad would look equally menacing in Madrid, Milan or Munich.

The comparisons will only begin in earnest once this team has won at least a proper double (PL plus European Cup or FA Cup). Based on current form and the ability shown last year in winning the league, this is not beyond United at the moment.

Ferguson's bold statements can be empty at times, but I don't think he's spoken lightly this time.

Why England will host World Cup 2018. Probably.

Back once again after a long spell. A combination of busy times at school and one killer flu led to a lack of inspiration for a good blog, but I'm glad to be at it again.

Alongside the announcement that Brazil will host the 2014 World Cup, FIFA supremo Sepp Blatter declared an end to the rotation policy used for bidding on football's top tournament.

This immediately sent the English FA into dreamland, since they would otherwise have to wait for bids from both the North American federation as well as another tournament from Asia before attempting to land another World Cup.

So far, the 2018 favorites include England, China, Russia, the U.S., Mexico and Australia. The pros and cons of each potential bid are many, but it's fairly easy to point out the major talking points:

China: This bid seems to be a bit of a no brainer. China is currently shaping up to be an economic powerhouse. What better way to show the world you've arrived than by hosting the world's biggest sporting event? Never mind that they're well on their way to making a hash of the 2008 Summer Olympic Games. We'll know shortly after that event whether FIFA will travel down the same sad road as the IOC and give the thumbs up to China. Verdict: No chance in hell. The problems that are cropping up now and will surely appear next summer will make this an easy decision for a sober FIFA committee.

Russia: Similar to China, Russia is coming into its own as a nation (ethical considerations aside, of course). The World Cup would be the best way imaginable for Vladimir Putin & Co. to show the world what billions in oil money can do. Guus Hiddink has done a fine job with the national team, but I think many people at FIFA will wonder whether Eastern Europe is ready for the big time. Verdict: Close to no chance, but check this space in a couple years.

Mexico: They have a great deal of World Cup pedigree, having hosted the final twice (1970 and 1986), but not much else in comparison to the other contenders. Like Brazil, who need to upgrade 18 stadiums in time for 2014, Mexico would need to do a similar reno job to be ready for the tournament. Verdict: Like Russia, there's always a chance, but likely not.

U.S.A.: The Americans could be considered as a host for every single World Cup tournament, simply because: A) They have dozens of state-of-the-art, 60,000-plus seat stadiums at their disposal, all over the country. B) Americans love to put on a show. C) There's 300 million Americans. The U.S. won't get the 2018 World Cup for one excellent reason: people in America don't give a toss about football. Verdict: Why take the big show where no one watches?

Australia: The Australian FA came out quickly after the announcement to end the rotation policy and stated they intend to bid. Aussies love their sport and are willing to put big money into things like World Cups and Olympic Games. Without a doubt FIFA will look at this bid with interest, especially since Oceania, which Australia were a member of before defecting to the Asian federation, has never hosted the finals. However, they face the same challenge as the Americans, that the country is huge, detracting from the atmosphere FIFA loves about geographically small nations. Verdict: Barring a major gaffe by England, Australia will have to wait.

England: Without a doubt, England should be the favourites to host 2018. Right now, this minute, they have the finest football specific stadiums in the world. By 2018, the new Anfield will be complete, surely Old Trafford will be improved again and as long as Abramovich is around, Stamford Bridge is due for a face lift. This is before the FA and the British government bring out the cash to spruce up the other grounds across the country (St. James Park, Villa Park and White Heart Lane come to mind). Along with the new Wembley, City of Manchester Stadium and the Stadium of Light in Sunderland, there are enough other stadiums that are above or could easily be made to match the FIFA requirement of 40,000 plus. To go with the English infrastructure and short travel distances, you only need to add one of the most football mad nations in the world. Verdict: They would really need to screw this one up...

All that being said, Australia and England will be quite a choice for FIFA to make. They can't go wrong with England, but if they pass up an Australian bid, how long will it take to get to a country who deserve a shot to host the World Cup?

I think England have a lock, because there is a lot that can go wrong for FIFA at the next two tournaments. South Africa already looks like a mess, with venue construction behind schedule and an alarming national crime rate.

Brazil, in being awarded the 2014 World Cup have stated they need to spend $550-million (USD) on improvements to 18 stadiums. Since the new Wembley cost almost twice as much to build, this initial investment may prove to be a little short. Cost overruns are not the best way to get the ball rolling, but we'll wait and see.

Finally, listening to World Soccer Daily, Steven Cohen has suggested the rotation policy was scrapped with North America on deck because South Africa isn't going to be ready for 2010. This would mean the U.S. would be at the top of the list to step in and host the tournament, like Mexico did in 1986 when Colombia backed out. I tend to agree with Mr. Cohen here, since I've not heard any good news about the African bid in some while. Stay tuned.

I've decided to stop the madness, will Rafa?

Previously on this blog, I came out in favour of Rafa Benitez rotation policies. I was particularly swayed by Paul Tomkins article on liverpoolfc.tv. I must admit now, that I was wrong.

Benitez is responsible for the Reds early season mediocrity. I say mediocrity because they have yet to lose in the league. However, for a manager who has spent millions over the close season, and millions more since he arrived at the club, this is totally unacceptable.

Losing to Marseille and drawing with Tottenham at Anfield is ridiculous. The squad is too deep and too good for this to happen.

Benitez changed five players from the win versus Wigan for Wednesday's loss against Marseille. He then changed another five players today for the draw with Tottenham.

The best teams play their best players when the games matter. For Liverpool, the games that matter are the League and the European Championship. If Liverpool were to advance to the final of the Champion's League again, they would play 53 games in these all-important competitions.

If Steven Gerrard, Jamie Carragher, Javier Mascherano, John Arne Riise, Fernando Torres, Steve Finnan and Dirk Kuyt have to play 53 games to win trophies, Benitez needs to play them in 53 games. There is no way around this fact.

Rotation reduces the competition for places - if players know they'll get their chance, there's less for them to play for. Why should Riise play his heart out when he knows Aurelio will take his place for the next game and he'll get the game after that? Why should Yossi Benayoun put in a full 90 minutes if he'll get dropped for the next game anyways?

If there's one thing to be sure of in Liverpool, Tom Hicks and George Gillett won't stand for less than trophies. Look at the Montreal Canadiens and Dallas Stars of the NHL. These teams haven't had coaches last extended periods of time, Liverpool is unlikely to be an exception.

Benitez seems to have learned playing Torres is good thing, but he needs to identify who the key players are in his squad and play them pretty much game in, game out.

Liverpool are now four points out of second with a game in hand and six points out of first, level on games with Arsenal. If they continue to drop points in games against the bottom feeders, they may be looking at another struggle to finish in the top four.

Three For Thought: Champions League Matchday 2

With the second set of matches set to unfold this week in the Champions League, I thought I'd point out which I think will make for intriguing fixtures.

1. Manchester Utd. v. AS Roma (at Old Trafford) Tuesday, Oct. 2

As one of two matches that should determine who wins the group, this is the biggest game on day two.

United are winning now after a slow start, but not really scoring. After another 1-0 victory over Birmingham on the weekend, they have won five matches in all competitions by a goal to nil. Not the sort of play that stirs the imagination. Furthermore, with Edwin Van der Sar picking up an injury on Saturday, the odds of a clean sheet against any team, let alone Roma are much slimmer.

Roma, on the other hand, are playing very attractive football. While they did lose 1-4 to Inter over the weekend, they have averaged two goals a game in Serie A and looked good in their opening CL game versus Dynamo Kyiv. They will also be seeking revenge for the 1-7 humiliation they suffered in last season's competition.

Both teams are far from ironclad at the back and potent going forward. Look for more than two goals in this match, with a 2-2 draw a likely result.

2. Valencia v. Chelsea (at the Mestalla), Wednesday, Oct. 3

This match will prove to be Avram Grant's biggest test since taking over Chelsea from Jose Mourinho.

He essentially got a pass in his first match against Manchester United where his side lost 0-2. They easily won versus Hull in the League Cup, but only managed a goalless draw against Fulham on the weekend.

Valencia will be a much tougher test, particularly with captain John Terry out with a fractured cheek bone. Any result short of a draw in this match will put Chelsea's Champions League hopes in jeopardy.

For their part, Valencia will look to avenge their elimination from last season's competition at the hands of their rivals. They sit third in Spain with five victories already this season and atop CL group B after defeating Schalke 04 on matchday 1. On current for, Valencia look to be a challenge to any squad in Europe.

Look for Valencia to win 1-0 and add to Chelsea's woes.

3. Celtic v. AC Milan (at Celtic Park), Wednesday, Oct. 3

A test of Celtic's impeccable home record in European competition against the reigning European champions.

Celtic have shown flashes of brilliance so far this season, but stumbled to defeat against Hibs on the weekend. They lost their opening match in group D 0-2 to Shaktar in a difficult Eastern European fixture. Celtic play excellent football at home (all their CL points come at home), so they should test the mettle of the Italian giants.

Milan on the other hand are starting to show their age. With only 3 victories in CL, Serie A and the Super Cup this season, Milan have faltered out of the gate. They may feel lucky to escape this match with a draw.

I see Celtic coming through this match with a 1-0 victory, putting Milan boss Carlo Ancelotti's job under further scrutiny.

Other Odd Facts

• The match against Steaua will be Arsenal's first match away from London since visiting Blackburn on Aug. 19.
• The match between Inter and PSV will pit Roberto Mancini against Ronald Koeman. The pair battled in the 1992 European Cup Final as members of Sampdoria and Barcelona respectively.
• Prediction: After scoring in his past two matches, Yossi Benayoun will not feature for Liverpool.
  

Mourinho

I was just about to start listening to yesterday's podcast of the World Soccer Daily show when I paused. The episode, three hours in length, is going to be all about The Special One -- how can I listen to this without putting my thoughts out for all to hear before taking in all that Steven and Howard have to say?

I love listening to this show and hearing these guys rant. It's refreshing, so unlike the staid commentary on podcasts such as Guardian Unlimited's Football Weekly or ESPN Soccernet Extra. Those are both great pods, but lack the personality of WSD. I highly recommend it; there's a link on this site; check it out.

Well, here goes...

On Thursday morning at 1:00 a.m. or so GMT, Chelsea made the decision to part ways with Jose Mourinho. For better or worse, this alters the course of a footballing juggernaut.

Chelsea are laden with talent and their owners pockets are so deep the only issue for acquiring new talent appears to be the technicality of a transfer window and the whim of Mr. Abramovich.

Somehow, Mourinho kept egos and icons on the same page. They've won two Premier League championships, an FA Cup and League Cup during his reign. Without his personality vacuum in the dressing room, where do Chelsea turn for guidance?

The answer is unclear. Avram Grant, Mourinho's replacement, is sure to keep the boat on course, but I'm concerned with his ability to react to the unexpected. Just over 24,000 fans turned up at Stamford Bridge to see Chelsea draw Rosenborg 1-1 on Tuesday. What happens if the next result isn't a victory? How will Grant fill the void and keep Chelsea on track?

Chelsea's season may be scuppered. There was always going to be a daunting task come January to deal with the African Nations' Cup (Essien, Drogba, Kalou et al all gone for a month or so). Injury has already been a problem. Where will Chelsea turn if things go sour?

Don't get me wrong. Chelsea are too good to fall too far, but Champions League qualification is now the big task. Arsenal have proven so far they could absorb the loss of another talisman and Liverpool and Manchester have started well. It won't take much for a Man City, Everton or Blackburn to pop into the fourth spot.

Mourinho was the glue that held Chelsea together. He was eccentric to be sure, but his quality was evident. Chelsea's trophy cabinet speaks for itself.

Perhaps his only flaw was to have an ego larger than that of his boss, Mr. Abramovich.

Alarm Bells Go Off In Toronto

Alarm bells rang in the heads of Ontario football fans yesterday after reading that the Toronto Argos of the Canadian Football League were in talks with the City of Toronto about possibly moving into BMO Field as soon as 2009.

The disturbing part of this development is moving the Argos into what is also the National Soccer Stadium would require renovations to the stands to squeeze a CFL-sized field into a soccer specific stadium.

The owner of the stadium is the City of Toronto. I would expect the Argos would be on the hook for the estimated $10-20-million for the renovations but what is more important is what this will do to the atmosphere at BMO.

The center line would remain the same, according to an article in the Globe and Mail, requiring the end stands to be moved or removed. These areas contain the seats of the Red Patch Boys and U-Sector (among others) supporters groups.

As it is clear to anyone who follows football, by moving the seating further away from the action, this diminishes the atmosphere. Anyone who cares about Toronto FC or the Canadian national side in Ontario should keep on top of this story and let the city of Toronto know the Argos should find and pay for their own home.

The MLS wants football-specific stadiums. I'm sure I speak for the core of TFC's fan base when I say that they want a football specific stadium. Let's ensure we keep it a football specific stadium.

Canadian Football Fans To Protest

Tonight's match between Canada and Costa Rica at the National Soccer Stadium in Toronto will feature fans protesting the leadership of the Canadian Soccer Association.

Fans, led by various Toronto FC supporters groups, are encouraged to wear black to protest the what they believe is poor handling of the elite football programs in the country.

Some of the protest details and motives behind it are outlined on the U-Sector forums. Stephen Brunt of the Globe And Mail also wrote a column about the protest and the issues involving the CSA in today's edition.

In my opinion, the criticism of the CSA is fully deserved. I hope the fans at the game follow through with their comittment to cheer the team but make others aware of the poor state of the game in this country.

Canadian football deserves more

When Football Takes A Back Seat

Over the past few weeks, there has been a spate of incidences that have caused fans of the game to reflect on life outside of football. From the tragic death of Sevilla's Antonio Puerta to the heart attack suffered by Sunderland's Clive Clarke, the trials of life have been transcending the drama on the pitch.

This unfortunate trend continued today with the death of Ian Porterfield, former Sunderland footballing legend and the manager of the Armenian national team. Porterfield is best know as the player who fired home the winning goal to lift Sunderland to victory over heavily favored Leeds United in 1973.

What makes this event even more difficult for Armenian fans is it comes amid a pair of cancelled games with neighbouring Azerbiajan that were to be played September 8 and 12. The two countries share a border, but political differences made arranging the matches impossible. No points will be awarded to either team for the cancelled matches.

The most disappointing thing about the timing of the cancelled match tomorrow, to be played in Armenia, is that the Armenia FA and fans will have to wait to pay tribute to their manager. Hopefully UEFA will ask other associations to mark the passing and will support any tribute Armenia might plan for Porterfield in the future. Their next home fixture is October 13 versus Serbia in Yerevan.

Hiatus Over

I tied the knot on August 25, my excuse for not posting in a few weeks. Sorry, the honeymoon didn't involve much online time.

I'm going to take a bit of time to consider the England situation, since it is the international break and not much else is going on (except for Toronto FC extending their MLS record goalless streak, but I'm choosing not to comment).

England impressively defeated Israel 3-0 at Wembley on Saturday. What makes this an intriguing result is the number of regulars that were absent and the fine play of those coming into the squad. Emile Heskey, Gareth Barry, Micah Richards and an uninjured Michael Owen were the men doing the job in place of John Terry, Owen Hargreaves, Frank Lampard (whose current Chelsea form makes him missed) and Wayne Rooney.

Listening to podcasts and reading articles in the run up to this game, I was given the impression that England might be lucky to draw with Israel, who were undefeated in a streak of over a dozen games. However, I think the depleted squad was a good thing for England, especially at this point in their campaign.

England, currently fourth in their pool, need to play with urgency. Players of top calibre, not on top calibre teams are not used to playing with the same desperation of those teams who struggle for survival. I'm not suggesting that the Heskeys and Barrys are the type of players to necessarily be the key to the cup, but they are the type to get you in the door.

John Terry and Frank Lampard are champions. The silverware they have accumulated during the past three seasons speaks volumes about their character. But I'm not sure that players from the top Premier League teams are the right ones to pull England out of its hole. Players who are used to formidable opposition, used to playing against the odds are the ones whom England needs now.

This doesn't mean that Derby County's starting eleven should be drafted into the England squad. On form players, like Barry and like Heskey are the men for the job. They have both shown up early on in the season and McClaren has rewarded them for their efforts. But the League Championship, workhorse mentality that players from bottom-feeding teams bring with them is a breath of fresh air to an England team adrift in the qualification sea.

I think particularly at home on Wednesday, the England manager would be well served to keep his squad intact from the weekend. Russia will be a bigger test, but one that this squad should be able to handle at home. If he moves healthy players like Crouch (back from suspension) and Lampard (if he's fit) to the bench and uses them wisely as the situation calls for, England should see all six points from the current slate of matches.

Mido Not The Answer For Boro

The signing of Mido by Gareth Southgate's Middlesbrough would have been a welcomed signing. This was before Yakubu's name popped up again as a 11.5-million pound transfer target for Everton. Without at least two goalscorers, any English side will struggle at the bottom of the table. Stuart Downing, once again, will be mired on a less-than-mediocre side.

Mido is great in the air and is a good finisher, but even during his best days at Spurs he never struck me as a consistent scorer. Alongside players like Defoe and Keane, he can contribute. Alongside Aliadiere, I'm not so sure. If Yakubu is retained, I think they could be a formidable pairing. Mido playing target man, laying the ball off for a quick pacey assassin like Yakubu would be exciting to see.

The flip side is Everton could really use Yakubu. With James Vaughn out and Andy Johnson a somewhat fragile player, Everton would do well to pick up a player of Yakubu's calibre. Mikel Arteta, who will surely be targeted by the biggest clubs in Europe by the end of the season, would definitely benefit from the Nigerian's presence up front.

Southgate would do well to hang on to his club's top scorer from last year and reap the rewards of two class acts up front.

Barclay's Premier League Predictions

Without further ado, my 2007/2008 Barclay's Premier League predictions:

20. Derby County

The heroes of the new Wembley are certain to be one of the leaguewide punching bags. Billy Davies may not figure in the Sack Race, since he has already been muttering about the lack of genuine transfer funds available to the club and could quit the club long before they are forced to sack him. When your big summer signing is Robert Earnshaw, trouble is on the horizon.

19. Birmingham City

In spite of acquiring attacking players of genuine European pedigree such as former Juve and Auxerre winger Kapo and the intriguing signing of Garry O'Connor, this team is lacking at the back and will suffer at the hands of even the most modest Premier attacking lines. Steve Bruce's name will be amongst the first to come up in the Sack Race and by January this team will be thanking its lucky stars this season's parachute fund is the largest of all time.

18. Wigan Athletic

Wigan will be the side to spend the least in order to drop to the Championship, but their big summer signing may in fact be the difference if they happen to squeak into 17th. Jason Koumas, signed from West Brom, is an excellent player who performed well when Albion was last up in the top flight. Chris Hutchings has yet to prove that he is Paul Jewell, so look for this brave northwest side to struggle this season.

17. West Ham United

Yes. West Ham, ducking the axe yet again. They seem to have added wisely, ditching duds in Harewood and Reo-Coker in favor of stalwarts in Ljungberg, Bellamy and Parker. The problem with the Hammers this year will be the ghost of Joorabchian hanging over the club. The financially astute but politically oblivious Iranian agent and the controversy he has managed to drag West Ham into over Carlos Tevez and Javier Mascherano will almost make Sheffield United's dreams come true. Almost...

16. Middlesbrough

The changing of the guard will occur in the football mad northwest. Out with the tired and confused side at the Riverside, in with...well, you'll have to wait. Two players scored more than two goals for Boro last year: Viduka and Yakubu. Viduka is gone and Gareth Southgate seems to be bound and determine to allow Yakubu to flee the sinking ship. With only the lost soul who is Jeremie Aliadiere to fill in up front, Boro will sink perilously low in the table.

15. Sunderland

Supplanting Boro up the table will be Roy Keane's Black Cats. They haven't shaken the Earth with transfer signings, but Etuhu will be a force in the center of the pitch and Kieran Richardson will know better than to cross his former captain. If relegation threatens, so may the manager. I wouldn't want to be on the wrong end of a Keano diatribe about relegation over his dead body...

14. Reading

Many would tip Reading to fall back to Earth after their stunning top-half finish last season. I am amongst those wise souls. Reading have too much quality and organization to drop, but little punch to inspire. Gone is stalwart Steve Sidwell, but manager Steve Coppell has enough quality to keep the squad afloat. He has a knack for organizing his overachieving crew in magnificent ways, but the rest of the league has improved, while Reading has largely maintained the status quo.

13. Manchester City

He's baaaack! Yes everyone's favorite mad scientist, Sven-Goran Eriksson, has resurfaced (got bored of the girls in the redlight?) to take control of City. Poor City... I think Sven will make Man City a better team in the long haul (as long as the human rights fugitive with the deep pockets stick around) but he admitted to not having seen any of his signings acutally play. Sven can sight the best player at each position and is decent tactically, but fails to find players who can actually play TOGETHER (see the England squad, WC '02, '06 and EC '04). His signings will largely take at least half the season to mesh, but after Christmas the formula will be improved. Poor City...

12. Fulham

If Fulham are relegated, I wouldn't be surprised. If Fulham finish just outside the UEFA Cup, I wouldn't be surprised. Lawrie Sanchez seems determined to fill his squad with American internationals, but they're, like, in the FIFA top 20, right? No, really he likes Villa rejects and guys who demand England caps when they clearly suck...The core of Fulham's side is still intact and they have a knack of fending off relegation. The money appears to flow into the transfer market with great ease, so if relegation looms in January, where there's a will there's a way, by al-Fayed!

11. Everton

Merseyside's poor cousins have been struck with an early season injury bug that appears to have struck the people that score goals in the squad...Cahill and Vaughn are out and Johnson will be laid up soon, stay tuned. Phil Jagielka, alongside Phil Neville, provide two fine utility men for a very shallow squad. David Moyes will prove is worth by the end of the season, keeping the Toffees well above the drop whilst never truly threatening the boys at the top.

10. Aston Villa

Err...Martin O'Neill, what are you up to? Reo-Coker? Harewood? Huh? After leading West Ham just clear of relegation, these are shorley the men for the the job right? Wrong! Short of Gabriel Agbonlahor becoming the second incarnation of Ian Rush in the mid-80s, Villa will once again come up short. I admire O'Neill a great deal, but I think his pleas in defence of Randy Lerner the tightwad are growing a bit thin. Show him the money already.

9. Bolton Wanderers

The loss of Big Sam results in the drop of the Trotters. Not too far, thankfully. The land of misfit toys will keep on truckin', with a few interesting additions (watch for Mikel Alonso) and two dire losses (Sam himself and Tal Ben Haim). Anelka, Davies and Diouf will put the ball away one more time, but Sammy Lee will find things a bit tougher than when his old boss was ruling the roost.

8. Newcastle United

The Toon Army will be ecstatic that More Money is available to spend on overrated players via Mike Ashley's cash. This time around, the holder of the Big Chequebook is Big Sam. This is good. However, it appear that the traditional Newcastle nemesis, Injuries, will do their best to thwart Sam's plans. Alan Smith, Mark Viduka and Geremi will be fine additions to for the Magpies, but so would an injury free Michael Owen. Healthy, this team could very well be in Europe by the end of the season...otherwise, we all know the story.

7. Portsmouth

Harry Redknapp's squad will come of age this season. After several seasons of hot and cold play, the south coast's main representative will put it all together in the upcoming campaign. David Nugent and Sylvain Distin bolster an already competent Premier squad. If not, Southampton will always hold the door open for Harry...

6. Blackburn

Finally, the first side that has an outside shot at a Champions League spot for 08/09. Outside I said! Geez... Benni McCarthy showed all-world class last campaign and will be odds-on to look good again this year. Roque Santa Cruz will only add to Mark Hughes steadily improving side. Morten Gamst Pedersen remains one of the best players not with the top four in the league. Blackburn will impress in the UEFA Cup and will impress in the League.

5. Tottenham Hotspur

Darren Bent...not worth 16.5-million. Don't get me wrong, I think Tottenham are a great squad, Bent is a great player, but only a regular international should really command that kind of coin (especially when your nation is striker bereft England). They have good strikers, good midfield, absentees at the back. They have too much class not to finish top-six, but not enough to squeak into the upper class of the English pecking order. Martin Jol may be looking to the Dutch national squad before March...

4. Arsenal

By default (read, Tottenham's inadequacies) Arsenal will be back in the 3rd round qualifiers next August. Henry is a blow, but he didn't figure in almost half the season anyways. Van Persie is the real deal, he will certainly improve on his 11 goal tally from last season, helping to make the Emerites faithful forget their departed talisman. Da Silva, by many accounts, is a bit of enigma (Zagreb?!?) and Wenger has yet to put pen to paper and remain at the club. He likely will, especially if David Dein squeaks back on the scene. Gilberto will need to step up, particularly since he was passed over for the captaincy in favor of William Gallas (forever linked to Italy). They lack some of the cohesion of the other squads in the top four due to the big names exiting every summer, but they are still a notch above the rest of the league.

3. Chelsea

I honestly wouldn't have them here, were it not for the fact that eight of their first 11 appear to be scratched from the opening day match. John Terry, Michael Ballack and Wayne Bridge for sure, with Drogba and Cole questionable. Others are not so at risk, but a slow start is the kiss of death in the race for the title. Mourinho is only a meltdown away from losing the squad and Roman's faith...they are WAY too good to finish below Arsenal, but circumstance will dictate much of the Blues' season.

2. Liverpool

The Reds have come a long way since Athens, but it's a lot further to Manchester. Liverpool may have the tightest defence in the league, but last season lacked the finishing touch of the champions or Chelsea. Enter Torres (26.5M!?!), Benayoun, Babel and Voronin. These players will make a huge difference, but it will be stalwarts Carragher and Gerrard upon whom their hopes will ride. Carragher's all-world performances need to continue and Gerrard will still be the man to pick the squad up by the scruff of the neck and drag them to glory. Both are more than capable, but capability and results are often two different things. Also, watch for Javier Mascherano. Ask Kaka what it's like to play against this guy. Joy for Milan might not have been guaranteed if he stayed on the pitch in Athens...

1. Manchester United

Simply the most complete squad in the league. Their back line isn't the best, but they do the job. Their midfield is fantastic, with Carrick, Ronaldo, Giggs and Scholes a well-oiled machine. Rooney will only benefit from the arrival of Carlos Tevez, and the goals will continue to roll in for the Red Devils. I feel Ferguson has overpaid for some of the talent he has brought in (Hargreaves for 17M?) but they are all class and the rewards will be reaped for years to come. The only way they lose the title is dropping 6 points to Liverpool.

There it is! Like it or leave it, I suppose.

As a postscript, Bernie Ecclestone, F1 supremo and generally eccentric weirdo, is going to make a bid for Arsenal. Oh, NOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Debunking The Rotation Curse

Paul Tomkins, a writer from the U.K. who writes a regular column for Liverpoolfc.tv, has written a fine article clearing the air about Rafa Benitez much-maligned squad rotation habits. Honestly, until reading some of the stats Tomkins compiled and analyzed, I was a firm believer that Rafa's tinkering was a impediment to Liverpool's league success.

Surprisingly, both Chelsea and Manchester United rotate their squads as frequently as the Reds. Their changes are of a different pattern than Liverpool, but not in a manner that makes it clear that one rotation policy is better than another.

Read on at http://www.liverpoolfc.tv/news/drilldown/NG156624070808-1304.htm.