Premier League 08/09 Preview: Part I

Well, the new season is almost upon us, so I now offer my take on how the English Premier League will break down this season. Today, the bottom five teams from last place to 16th.

20. HULL CITY (v. Fulham, Aug. 16)
Stadium: KC Stadium (Cap.: 25,404)
Manager: Phil Brown

07 / 08 Finish: W 21, D 12, L 13, GD +18, P 75, (3rd in Championship, won playoffs)

Having won promotion to the Premier League via some courageous matches in the League Championship Playoffs, Hull City are set to have a difficult first-ever campaign in England’s top flight. Manager Phil Brown has his work cut out for him, as while he’s managed to cobble out a stable mix of young talent and crafty veterans in his squad, it’s unlikely to be enough for Hull to avoid the drop. Players like holding midfielder George Boateng and defender Anthony Gardner will provide some Premier League bona fides to the team and forward Caleb Folan will need to step up his scoring in the absence of last year’s star Fraizer Campbell, who returned to Manchester United after his loan period ended. A lot will depend on Brown’s ability to move beyond the one dimensional tactics that many promoted sides fall back on in the top division – which could be hard, given he learned the ropes under Sam Allardyce at Bolton. Big Sam new how to build for survival, but proved last year at Newcastle that tactics aren’t necessarily his forte.

IN: Peter Halmosi (Plymouth, £3m); George Boateng (Middlesbrough, £1m); Craig Fagan (Derby, £750,000); Geovanni (Manchester City, free); Bernard Mendy (Paris St-Germain, Free); Tony Warner (Fulham, free); Anthony Gardner (Tottenham, six month loan)

OUT: David Livermore (Brighton, free); Henrik Pedersen (Silkeborg IF, free); Ben Wilkinson (York, free); Frank Belt (released); Brewster Frizzell (released); Jay-Jay Okocha (released)

Top League Goalscorers:
Fraizer Campbell 15
Dean Windass 11
Caleb Folan 8
Dean Marney 6
Richard Garcia 5

19. STOKE CITY (at Bolton Wanderers, Aug. 16)
Stadium: The Britannia Stadium (Cap.: 28,383)
Manager: Tony Pulis

07 / 08 Finish: W 21, D 16, L 9, GD +14, P 79, (2nd in Championship)

Stoke are in a similar boat to Hull, having finished second in the Championship last year, mainly on the back of hard work and perseverance. Seeing a few Stoke games on the telly last season, they were a committed side that gave little away at the back but were a little short on invention going forward. The arrival of Dave Kitson will add a proven finisher to the squad, but the question is who will provide the service? Salif Diao and Rory Delap are hardly the midfield wizards required at the top level. A great deal more commitment will be required from Tony Pulis’s side if they are to avoid a one way ticket back to the Championship.

IN: Dave Kitson (Reading, £5.5m); Seyi Olofinjana (Wolves, £3m); Thomas Sorensen (Aston Villa; free)

OUT: Marlon Broomes (Blackpool, free); Russell Hoult (Notts County, free); Dominic Matteo (released)

Top League Goalscorers:
Ricardo Fuller 15
Liam Lawrence 14
Richard Cresswell 11
Leon Cort 8
Ryan Shawcross 7

18. NEWCASTLE UNITED (at Manchester United, Aug. 17)
Stadium: St. James Park (Cap.: 52,387)
Manager: Kevin Keegan

07 / 08 Finish: W 11, D 10, L 17, GD -20, P 43 (12th)

Yes, I think the bells are set to toll for the Toon Army. An owner who is more concerned with having a good time on the terrace than ensuring the stability of the club, a squad that is still in disarray – rife with grumblings about wanting out – following the disastrous transfer period this time last year and a fragile manager in Kevin Keegan whose shelf life is always a concern. Oh, and then there’s Joey Barton. There remains talent in the side, with James Milner, Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins all capable of performing at top levels, but injuries remain a concern. But concerns also remain over the play of Damien Duff, Alan Smith, Mark Viduka and the entire group of defenders. That Keegan splashed the cash out for a player like Jonas Gutierrez isn’t surprising: Keegan loves to attack. But United finished with a negative 20 goal difference last season and the team is a lot further than one player away from boosting the number of goals scored any further, meaning tightening up the back might be easier and cost less than £9 million. I fear this season will once again be about side shows, and with no Keegan-like saviour on the horizon, the off-pitch activities will sink Newcastle this season.

IN: Jonas Gutierrez (Real Mallorca, £9m); Danny Guthrie (Liverpool, £2.5m); Sebastien Bassong (Metz, £1.8m); Frank Wiafe Danquah (FC Ominworld, undisclosed)

OUT: Emre Belozoglu (Fenerbahce, £4m); David Rozehnal (Lazio, £2.9m); Mark Cook (Hartlepool, free); Peter Ramage (QPR, free); Stephen Carr (released); Lamine Diatta (released); James Troisi (released)

Top League Goalscorers:
Michael Owen 11
Obafemi Martins 9
Mark Viduka 7
Charles N’Zogbia 3
Nicky Butt 3

17. WEST BROMWICH ALBION (at Arsenal, Aug. 16)
Stadium: The Hawthorns (Cap.: 28,003)
Manager: Tony Mowbray

07 / 08 Finish: W 23, D 12, L 11, GD +33, P 81 (1st in Championship)

The main reason I see West Brom squeaking past teams like Newcastle and perhaps Middlesbrough to avoid the drop is that generally one of the teams being promoted stays up the following season. West Brom represents the team most likely to adapt to the rigors of the Premier League. While the “Arsenal of the Championship” comparisons are overblown, West Brom does have the capability to move beyond the direct ball tactics less talented teams resort to in the Premier League. Jonathan Greening and Robert Koren offer solid options in the midfield, while newcomer Luke Moore will join the likes of Roman Bednar, signed permanently after a successful loan spell last season, in the attack. The losses of Zoltan Gera and Kevin Phillips will hurt, but West Brom is the best equipped team at the back of the three teams coming up. Scott Carson will be given a chance to shine at the Hawthorns, but veteran Dean Kiely provides adequate cover if the experiment fails. Gianni Zuiverloon also adds depth to the WBA back line.

IN: Scott Carson (Liverpool, £3.25m); Gianni Zuiverloon (Heerenveen, £3.2m); Luke Moore (Aston Villa, £2.5m to £3m); Roman Bednar (Hearts, £2.3m); Marech Cech (Porto, £1.5m); Do-heon Kim (Seongnam Ilhwa Shunma, £500,000); Graham Dorrans (Livingston, £100,000 rising to £250,000); Michael Danek (Viktoria Plzen, six month loan extension)

OUT: Curtis Davies (Aston Villa, £8m); Martin Albrechtsen (Derby, free); Zoltan Gera (Fulham, free); Stefan Morrison (Swansea, free); Kevin Phillips (Birmingham, free); Luke Steele (Barnsley, free); Luke Daniels (Shrewsbury, one month loan); Jack Compton (released); Michael Nardiello (released)

Top League Goalscorers:
Kevin Phillips 22
Roman Bednar 13
Ishmael Miller 9
Robert Koren 9
Zoltan Gera 8

16. MIDDLESBROUGH (v. Tottenham Hotspur, Aug. 16)
Stadium: The Riverside Stadium (Cap.: 35,100)
Manager: Gareth Southgate

07 / 08 Finish: W 10, D 12, L 16, GD -10, P 42 (13th)

Should Newcastle struggle to survival this season, Middlesbrough offers another likely candidate to grace the Championship in 09/10. Gareth Southgate still seems to lack anything approaching a deft touch in the transfer market, Afonso Alves notwithstanding. Didier Digard and Marvin Emnes could be promising, but they aren’t enough to improve a side that struggled for much of last season. Southgate failed to replace Jonathan Woodgate, who left in January and Boro are still far to dependent on Stuart Downing for midfield creativity. Perhaps Southgate is relying on Turkish international Tuncay Sanli to build upon his Euro 2008 form and provide a spark down the right. It was only when the relegation writing was on the wall last season that Middlesbrough came to life, and this may be the case again this season, saving a poor Boro team from the drop.

IN: Didier Digard (Paris St-Germain, £4m); Marvin Emnes (Sparta Roterdam, £3.2m)

OUT: Lee Cattermole (Wigan, £3.5m); George Boateng (Hull, £1m); Jason Kennedy (Darlington, free); Fabio Rochemback (Sporting Lisbon, free); Mark Schwarzer (Fulham, free); Steve Thompson (Port Vale, free); Gaizka Mendieta (released); Dong Gook Lee (released)

Top League Goalscorers:
Stuart Downing 9
Tuncay Sanli 8
Afonso Alves 6
Jérémie Aliadière 5
David Wheater 3

TOMMORROW: Part II of the Premier League Preview, featuring the 11th - 15th placed teams.