My EURO 2008 predictions

The two major international football tournaments, the World Cup and the European Championship, are great fun indeed for fans around the world. Games almost every day, top-class talent on display and wall-to-wall media coverage in some of the darndest places.

For my part, I'm going to look at some of the highs and lows of the 16-team field and hash out who will be happiest come June 29.

The Also-Rans

I'll spare you some money: don't be placing any wagers on Austria, Greece or Sweden to make any waves this year.

The co-hosts, Austria, are woeful without much anywhere in their line-up. No strikers, no wonder kids in the midfield, no intimidating center backs, no keepers. Nada. Their FIFA ranking, about 30 places below Canada for chrissakes, is a miserable 92nd. A scoring a goal would be a worthy milestone for this group.

Now I don't have anything against Greece, I just don't see lightning striking twice. Decent team, but up against Spain, Russia and Sweden in Group D, I can't see them eking through to the quarter-finals.

Oh yeah, Sweden. Yes, they're okay, but see the above argument and deduce that three points would be a good haul for this group.

Outside Shots

For some reason or another, the next group of teams has something that could potentially set them apart from some of the more established sides. Read: these guys could pull Greece -- Poland, Turkey, Romania, Russia and Switzerland.

Poland topped their group ahead of Portugal - beating them once and earning a draw in the process - during qualifying. They play disciplined, organized football, sort of like Greece! If they can get a point from either Croatia or Germany to go along with three against Austria in Group B, they could get through.

Switzerland are a similar case, with a solid back line and organized midfield that produced a good display two years ago in Germany. Coupled with their home field advantage, they could do enough to get past Portugal and Czech Republic and on into the quarters.

Romania, the poor cousin in the group of death, could very well sneak up on their glittering opposition and slip into the knockout round. With only one defeat in qualifying (a loss to Bulgaria on the next to last qualifying date -- they beat Albania 6-1 on the final day), they topped their group ahead of the Dutch. As such, they appear to be a reasonable force in their own right, led by Adrian Mutu who has come off a spectacular season at Fiorentina. Points will be precious here so even a modest return could vault a team into the quarters.

After finishing in the top four at Japan/Korea in 2002, Turkey have floundered a little. They haven't been to a major tournament since, but there's still talent in the lineup. Their group could be the most favourable, with no clear cut top two teams in Group A amongst Switzerland, Portugal and Czech Republic.

Finally, Russia are the team of this group that I could see making the most noise in the tournament. One factor makes me write this, and perhaps one fact alone: Guus Hiddink. This man knows international tournaments. Having guided the Netherlands to the semi-final of World Cup 1998, he took South Korea to the semis in 2002. In Germany two years ago, he came very close to guiding Australia past eventual champions Italy in the second round, losing on a last moment penalty. Russia perhaps aren't Holland, but they're comparable to Korea or Australia surely. Watch out...

The Usual Suspects

But of course we now must move on to the more realistic sides, the teams many of us have learned to both love and loath for their talents and bad habits: Portugal, Czech Republic, Croatia and France.

As is ever the case, there will be Portugal, trotting out in their claret and green kits, putting on a dazzling display of footwork and play acting. Inevitably however, they will fail once they come up against a team that really doesn't care what party tricks they can pull and Portugal will limp back to Lisbon ruing a missed opportunity four years ago against Greece. They're good, but there's probably seven other teams in the tournament as good or better.

The Czech Republic is in a similar set of circumstances. Competent, especially at the back (Petr Cech is not too bad...), the Czechs have the ability to beat anyone on their day. Their day however could be next year for all we know. They will miss Tomas Rosicky and Jan Koller is a year older, but the plucky Czechs did top their qualifying group over the Germans, so don't count them out until at least the quarter finals.

Croatia may be the best of this group and will probably be the best team not in the semifinals. They made the English look silly at Wembley and they have an exciting attack. Their downfall will be an aging back line that while they managed to hold an impotent England at bay will be tested much more sternly by any team not led by Steve McClaren. I've been particularly impressed by Niko Kranjcar over the past season at Portsmouth...be warned.

France are truly the elder statesmen of the tournament. Patrick Viera, Claude Makelele, Lillian Thuram and Thierry Henry will once again suit up for Les Bleus. Unlike World Cup 2006, there will be no Zinedine Zidane, who loaded the whole crew on his back and carried them until he lost his, err...head? There are great youngsters in the form of Karim Benzema and Sami Nasri, but wait at least a couple years before penciling in the French for glory.

The Big Four (Manchester, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool need not apply!)

For those who've been counting, only the Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Spain are left. I feel these guys are the ones to watch during the final three games of the tournament.

The Dutch are a shambles, that should be said at the outset. There is ceaseless rumour-mongering surrounding this squad, and outright rebellion never seems far away. That being said, the names Robben, van Nistelrooy, van der Vaart, van Persie and Sneijder should put the fear in the best of them...I'm scared and I'm an ocean away. The Dutch also feature Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink, the player with the Greatest Name Ever. They are suspect at the back, which will likely be their Achilles heel if dissent isn't already. The outsider of the big four, relying on otherworldly, fragile talent. Oh yeah, they also play in the Group of Death.

As reigning world champions, Italy are not to be trifled with. They feature battle tested players who get the job done: Gattuso, Pirlo, Zambrotta, Materazzi (I know your sister...), Camoranesi, Toni, sheer quality all over the pitch. If only because I don't think they are as good as the French team that won both the World Cup and Europe, I think they may fall short. They will miss Canavaro, who is hurt, but will likely benefit from the absence of Totti, who seems to unbalance every team he is selected for. Keep an eye on Di Natale, who has impressed in the lead up to the tournament, Aquilani, who I really enjoyed watching play for Roma in the Champions League this year and De Rossi, because everyone who knows more than I do says so.

At the end of the month, Germany will likely be one of the teams left standing. Like Italy, they are solid all over the pitch, but unlike Italy, they have moved on an built upon a semi-final appearance in that tournament. Yes they didn't cruise through qualifying, but none of the favourites did. They do have some of the best players in the tournament, like Ballack, who could look to make EURO 2008 a crescendo on the calendar year in which he has risen from the hard, hard pine at the end of the Chelsea bench to regain his stature as one of the best around. Podolski, Kuranyi and Klose up front provide firepower, while Lahm and Jansen provide attacking flexibility from the full back positions. In goal is their biggest weakness, German fans should pray Lehmann retires from international play at the end of the tournament.

And the winner is...Spain? The right mix of veteran savvy, youthful exuberance and technical excellence may finally end the pain for the Spaniards. Casillas and Reina are the two best keepers outside of Cech in the tournament and they play for the same side. Fabregas' will complement the likes of Iniesta and Hernandez in the middle. Torres, Garcia, Villa and Silva will provide the goals. The defense is competent if not flawless. They play decent but not tough opposition in the opening round. They very well could win. Ole.

These are predictions, not results, and I am no expert, but that's the way I see it.